☕️ China's exports surge as AI demand fuels growth

Hi there, this is your daily ☕️ Finpresso.

In today's newsletter:

🇨🇳 China's exports surge as AI demand fuels growth

🇨🇦 Ottawa's retaliation risks escalating US trade war

🏭 TSMC and Samsung adopt ASML's newest chip tools

🇫🇷 Samsung leads Mistral's $3.5B raise

💵 Citi and DBS settle first weekend cross-border payment

Plus: 🌍 9 macro news, 🏢 9 corporate news, and 📑 6 research & reports.

📊 Before The Bell

• China's exports jumped 25% in dollar terms in August from a year earlier, quickening from July's 23.9%, as global spending on AI infrastructure lifts demand for high-tech components and offsets weak domestic demand at home.
• Imports rose 28.2%, short of the 30% economists expected, signaling still-soft domestic demand; the gap pushed China's trade surplus to $119.09 billion from $112.5 billion in July, keeping exports as the economy's main growth engine.
• The surge is drawing pushback from trading partners, with China the lone G20 dissenter to a statement criticizing export-reliant economies, though analysts expect the friction won't derail Xi Jinping's planned Washington visit later this month.

• Canada's retaliatory tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. goods took effect yesterday after trade talks collapsed last month, raising the risk of a deeper conflict between two allies that traded more than $700 billion in goods.
• The duties range from 15% to 50% and hit dairy, farm equipment, appliances and electronics, with tariffs on U.S. steel, aluminum and iron products doubling to 50% and furniture and clothing also facing the top rate.
• Economists say the affected goods are a small slice of trade but deal a severe blow to smaller firms and hard-hit sectors; Ottawa added a $7.5 billion support package to $25 billion already committed since the U.S. tariff push began in April 2025.

• TSMC and Samsung, the world's two largest chipmakers, have committed to buying ASML's High NA extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines, tools that print circuit patterns onto silicon and can cost about $400 million each, as demand for advanced chips grows.
• Investors treat High NA adoption as central to ASML's growth after a 120% share gain over the past year, though Amsterdam-listed shares were flat-to-lower today; Samsung plans to make DRAM memory with the tools from 2028, TSMC for AI-driven chips.
• Barclays called the news "a positive," saying it clarifies adoption and leaves ASML facing a decision on whether to expand capacity beyond its plan to add roughly 30% more EUV output in 2027, since "demand is clearly strong."

• Samsung led a 3 billion euro ($3.5 billion) funding round for French AI startup Mistral, lifting its post-money valuation above 21 billion euros as it seeks to become a European alternative to OpenAI and Anthropic.
• The valuation nearly doubles from 11.7 billion euros a year ago, and CEO Arthur Mensch said the cash will fund its own data centers and rented computing power, aiming to roughly double the compute it owns within five years.
• Mensch, who earlier expected annual recurring revenue above $1 billion this year, said he now expects to beat that as Mistral pitches "sovereign" AI to European clients wary of relying on U.S. and Chinese providers.

• DBS and Citi said today they completed the first weekend US-dollar cross-border payment between Singapore and New York using tokenized deposits on Swift's Digital Ledger, settling in minutes versus up to two business days for traditional transfers.
• The transaction, done September 5, removes weekend and time-zone delays that slow dollar payments, letting institutions move money outside banking hours, aimed at companies operating across jurisdictions such as e-commerce and digital services firms.
• Citi joined a Swift pilot for round-the-clock cross-border payments in July and is part of a group of US banks building a tokenized deposit network through The Clearing House, targeting a launch in the first half of 2027.

🌍 Macro News

• Japanese yen climbed seven-month high as traders unwound bearish bets. LINK
• Treasury yield nearing 4.8%, risking broader asset problems amid heavy government borrowing. LINK
• Oil prices rose third day, reaching six-week highs amid Mideast tensions. LINK
• Diesel shortage likely persists through winter as lost supplies outpace refinery capacity. LINK
• Copper hit record $14,617 as scarce supply and tariff expectations boosted prices. LINK
• Maritime authorities warn parallel shipping systems could undermine safety and global trade. LINK
• China halted approvals for new battery-storage factories to curb overcapacity. LINK
• FCA discussed potentially easing its retail ban on financial prediction markets. LINK
• Trump threatened Bombardier’s US sales unless it shifts manufacturing to America. LINK

🏢 Corporate News

• Wistron shares fell after pricing a $1.47 billion stock offering. LINK
• Jaguar Land Rover plans 4,000 job cuts amid a £1.7bn savings drive. LINK
• Tesla shares dropped as Europe considers approving its supervised Full Self-Driving software. LINK
• Fair Isaac plunged after VantageScore gained approval for Fannie and Freddie lending. LINK
• Robinhood became an IPO underwriter, joining Oura’s public offering syndicate. LINK
• Jio Platforms may begin IPO investor meetings as early as next week. LINK
• Isar Aerospace successfully reached orbit, marking a European commercial-space milestone. LINK
• Grindr will pay £26 million to settle UK data-sharing lawsuit. LINK
• Ethereum proposal would allow users or applications to pay fees using stablecoins. LINK

📈 Stocks

📑 Research & Reports

• 6 free Claude skills for finance teams: cover close, forecasting and reporting work, ready to drop in. From Aleph. Get the 6 skill files for free
• Google’s Ironwood TPU reportedly outperformed Nvidia chips on early inference cost tests. LINK
• UK roadmap urges faster securities tokenisation to protect Britain’s financial competitiveness. LINK
• Mastercard expects AI agents to handle over 10% of shopping by 2030. LINK
• Bernstein maintained Robinhood’s Outperform rating, citing strong blockchain trading-fee growth. LINK
• HSBC warns corporate taxes, private debt and markets’ shifting relationship threaten resilience. LINK
• Chinese AI developers may remain unprofitable through 2030 despite rising revenues. LINK

📅 Market Calendar

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