☕️ Microsoft gains record $450B in one day

Hi there, this is your daily ☕️ Finpresso.

In today's newsletter:

📈 Microsoft gains record $450B in one day

🇺🇸 US joins Japan to prop up the yen

🇨🇳 Alibaba unveils its biggest AI model yet

🛢️ Oil drops 5% as Trump halts Iran strike

📦 Amazon jumps 13% on cloud, while Apple falls 7%

Plus: 🌍 6 macro news, 🏢 7 corporate news, 💰 5 deal flow, and 📑 6 research & reports.

📊 Before The Bell

• Microsoft's stock jumped 16% on Thursday, its largest single-day gain in nearly two decades, adding about $450 billion in market value, described by Bloomberg's analysis as the biggest one-day gain in stock market history.
• The rally followed the company's latest earnings report, with investors focused on strong growth at its Azure cloud computing business as evidence that Microsoft's heavy spending on artificial intelligence is starting to generate returns.
• The move fits a broader pattern this earnings season, as Amazon's revenue also climbed on AI investments while Meta and Microsoft both reported rising AI-related expenses, keeping cloud and AI spending at the center of Big Tech valuations.

• The US joined Japan to buy yen last week, the first such coordinated operation since 1998, after the currency sank to 163.73 per dollar, its weakest in nearly four decades, before rebounding to 157.57.
• Analysts say Washington's main motive was self-preservation: Japan, the largest foreign holder of US government debt, might otherwise dump Treasuries to fund the intervention, destabilizing a bond market where 10-year yields have already climbed almost 57 basis points this year.
• Tokyo said it will tap the Fed's FIMA repo facility for future interventions, letting it raise dollars without selling Treasuries, a signal analysts called "bigger than the intervention itself," though they warn it won't last unless Japan tightens monetary policy.

• Alibaba rolled out Qwen3.8-Max, its largest AI model with 2.4 trillion parameters, sending its shares up as much as 7.3% in their best session in nearly a month as investors bet on AI as a growth engine.
• The model returns Alibaba to open-source, letting businesses download and customize it themselves rather than only renting access, a shift meant to draw more enterprise customers to its cloud services and developer ecosystem.
• The launch escalates the US-China AI race, arriving days after Moonshot's Kimi K3, with one UBP executive arguing the performance gap with US leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic is "narrowing fast" despite US chip restrictions on Chinese labs.

• Oil fell about 5% after President Trump held off on a new attack on Iran, pursuing a deal to end Tehran's nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global crude.
• Brent crude dropped $4.08, or 4.64%, to $83.85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell $4.01, or 4.74%, to $80.66, unwinding some of last month's 20%-plus surge driven by renewed US-Iran fighting and tanker attacks near Oman.
• Analysts cautioned the calm may not hold, warning this week could repeat last week's pattern if talks collapse and Iran leverages its control of the strait, possibly through an attack on a US base or a passing tanker.

• Amazon reports second-quarter earnings after Thursday's close, with investors zeroing in on its cloud growth and whether it will raise this year's roughly $200 billion capital-spending plan for AI infrastructure.
• The capex question follows sharp divergences among peers: Alphabet's shares fell after it lifted its forecast to as high as $205 billion, Meta dropped 9% on AI costs squeezing cash flow, while Microsoft jumped as much as 15%.
• AWS revenue is expected to grow about 31% from a year earlier, up from 28% in the first quarter, though that trails rivals Google Cloud's 82% jump and Microsoft Azure's 43% rise; Amazon shares are up roughly 3% this year versus the S&P 500's 8%.

🌍 Macro News

• SEC freezes Nasdaq's bitcoin options pending review of CME's challenge. LINK
• UK manufacturing growth slowed in July, missing forecasts, PMI shows. LINK
• Rhine River water levels near record low, threatening shipping traffic. LINK
• Exelon's high-probability data center demand fell nearly 40% in Q2. LINK
• US Treasury sanctions two Iranian firms over Bitcoin-linked ship insurance scheme. LINK
• Kalshi and Polymarket hit record $50.59 billion trading volume in July. LINK

🏢 Corporate News

• Shell sells European onshore renewables business to TotalEnergies amid retreat. LINK
• Chinese chipmaker CXMT's Shanghai debut surge topped ICBC's valuation. LINK
• Ripple invests in ZILO and Licuido to expand tokenization business. LINK
• BBVA to fully own Altura Markets after buying SocGen's stake. LINK
• Index Ventures raises $2 billion, betting big on AI startups. LINK
• Partior and OpenAssets tested simultaneous settlement of tokenized digital assets. LINK
• Chime cuts 10% of workforce while expanding its AI use. LINK

📈 Stocks

📑 Research & Reports

• Banning Chinese AI models could cost US firms $12 billion yearly. LINK
• Stablecoins are turning corporate cash into programmable, continuous working capital. LINK
• Major card networks position payment rails for AI-driven commerce growth. LINK
• AI is polarizing UK job market, cutting vacancies since early 2025. LINK
• EY warns Hormuz Strait closure could shrink UK economy in 2027. LINK
• Sainsbury's sells Argos to Swift Partners for at least £120 million. LINK

💰 Deal Flow

• Amazon completes its full $50 billion investment in OpenAI. LINK
• AstraZeneca in talks to buy Bristol Myers Squibb, forming $400bn giant. LINK
• Mariana Minerals raises $310 million to automate mining operations. LINK
• K2 Space raises $500 million to build bigger satellites, rival SpaceX. LINK
• Chamath Palihapitiya raises $135 million for AI startup 8090, becomes CEO. LINK

📅 Market Calendar

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