☕️ 200 economists admit they can't predict AI's job impact

Hi there, this is your daily ☕️ Finpresso.

In today's newsletter:

🇨🇳 China's exports jump 27% on AI boom

🏦 Fed's Waller warns a rate hike may come in July

🇬🇧 UK targets £33B boost from tokenized finance

🤖 200 economists admit they can't predict AI's job impact

Plus: 🌍 8 macro news, 🏢 11 corporate news, 💰 7 deal flow, and 📑 5 research & reports.

📊 Before The Bell

📰 Top News

• China's exports climbed 27% in June from a year earlier, well ahead of economist expectations and May's 19.4% pace, driven largely by global demand tied to the artificial intelligence boom.
• The surge mainly reflects a jump in semiconductor prices and strong shipments of vehicles and other tech gear, widening China's trade surplus to $125.6 billion from $105.4 billion in May, as imports rose 36%.
• Growth is looking fragile, warns BNP Paribas' Wei Li, as auto and AI shipments hinge on global demand and trade barriers; exports to Southeast Asia jumped nearly 35%, to the EU over 18%, and to the US almost 14%.

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled the central bank may raise interest rates as soon as its July 28-29 meeting if inflation data this week come in hot, while warning against overreacting and tipping the economy into recession.
• His concern centers on core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rising from 3% in December 2025 to 3.4% in May, with nearly 70% of service categories now posting annualized gains above 3%.
• Waller blamed 2025 trade levies, higher energy costs from Middle East conflict and AI infrastructure demand; interest-rate futures traders put the odds of a July hike between 39% and 45%, with the next inflation reading due Tuesday.

• The U.K. has published a roadmap for putting wholesale financial markets on blockchain rails, estimating the shift could add up to £33 billion in annual economic output and £14 billion in yearly tax revenue by 2035 if built quickly.
• The plan, from government adviser Christopher Woolard, prioritizes digital government bonds, stablecoins and onchain settlement, targeting first issuance of a tokenized gilt (DIGIT) by the first quarter of 2027 to avoid losing liquidity and market share.
• The report projects the global market for tokenized assets could reach $88 trillion by 2035, up from roughly $23 billion today, but warns adoption depends on payment systems capable of real-time, cross-border settlement across stablecoins and traditional money.

• More than 200 economists, including 16 Nobel laureates and the chief economists of OpenAI and Anthropic, signed a statement this week conceding they cannot forecast how artificial intelligence will reshape jobs and the economy.
• The statement warns AI could drive a transformation larger than the Industrial Revolution but far faster, bringing risks like mass job displacement alongside potential living-standard gains, and urges building guardrails now rather than offering predictions.
• Underlying data is contested: Erik Brynjolfsson's dashboard tracking 4.6 million workers shows employment for those aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed jobs shrinking more than 4% annually, while Apollo's Torsten Slok notes five competing frameworks disagree most on the highest-stakes jobs.

🌍 Macro News

• BP shares jumped 3% on expectations of higher quarterly trading profits from surging crude prices. LINK
• Trump says US will reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian shipping and charge transit fees. LINK
• A bipartisan bill banning a Fed digital currency became law without Trump's signature. LINK
• Japan's 10-year bond yield hit its highest level since 1996 last week. LINK
• IMF warns many European governments face an unsustainable debt trajectory without major reforms. LINK
• Singapore's economy grew 5.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, beating expectations. LINK
• China's crude oil imports fell 41.3% in June to a decade low. LINK
• The dollar held steady near recent levels as traders awaited US inflation data. LINK

🏢 Corporate News

• Shein secured Chinese regulatory approval for a Hong Kong IPO. LINK
• General Fusion became the first publicly traded fusion company, surging 40% on debut. LINK
• Intel is investing €5 billion to upgrade its Irish chip factories for AI demand. LINK
• Strategy skipped Bitcoin purchases again, raising $467 million to boost cash reserves. LINK
• Mastercard is considering selling its UK payments unit Vocalink amid ownership concerns. LINK
• Nubank won final approval to operate as a full-service bank in Mexico. LINK
• Kraken launched a Mastercard debit card letting users spend crypto across Europe. LINK
• Oaktree-backed Pure Data Centres is building an AI data center in Finland. LINK
• Global smartphone shipments fell 11% year-over-year, their lowest second quarter since 2013. LINK
• SBI Holdings and Solana Foundation formed a joint venture to build blockchain finance in Japan. LINK
• Volkswagen's CEO confirmed plans to cut 50,000 jobs in a major restructuring. LINK

📈 Stocks

📑 Research & Reports

• BNEF says the global LNG glut will now peak in 2031-2032, a year later than expected. LINK
• Running AI models, not building them, now dominates enterprise AI costs, Deloitte finds. LINK
• The stablecoin market shrank by about $10 billion in its worst monthly drop since 2022. LINK
• Nvidia challengers mostly target narrow niches rather than its dominant AI-training chip business. LINK
• Restaurant tech platforms are embedding lending directly into merchants' daily software tools. LINK

💰 Deal Flow

• AI video startup PixVerse raised its Series C to $439 million, valuing it above $2 billion. LINK
• Chinese humanoid robot makers are racing to launch IPOs before competitors do. LINK
• JPMorgan initiated MDA Space at Overweight with a $34 price target. LINK
• Supply-chain startup Auger raised $50 million to automate corporate decision-making software. LINK
• London startup Valarian raised $50 million to help clients reduce reliance on US clouds. LINK
• Munich's Skalar raised €12 million to build an AI-first tax and accounting firm. LINK
• Aditya Birla Renewables agreed to buy Shell's Indian clean-energy assets for $1.8 billion. LINK

📅 Market Calendar

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