☕️ Brent tops $90 as US-Iran war hits Hormuz

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In today's newsletter:

🛢️ Brent tops $90 as US-Iran war hits Hormuz

🇳🇱 ASML posts record €9.3B in Q2 revenue

🇨🇳 Moonshot eyes $30B Hong Kong IPO

🪙 US misses GENIUS Act stablecoin rule deadline

📉 Fed sees inflation drop but call out red flag

Plus: 🌍 7 macro news, 🏢 9 corporate news, 💰 7 deal flow, and 📑 6 research & reports.

📊 Before The Bell

• Brent crude jumped more than 4% to $91.02 a barrel on Sunday as the eighth day of the U.S.-Iran war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage carrying roughly 20% of global oil.
• Vessel traffic through the strait fell sharply after Iranian attacks on commercial ships, and with U.S. crude also up nearly 3% to $84.85, analysts warn Brent could approach $100 absent swift de-escalation.
• The rally is feeding inflation concerns as higher fuel costs pass through to freight, food transport and gasoline, while equities dipped modestly on the prospect of prolonged energy-driven price pressure.

• ASML posted record second-quarter revenue of €9.3 billion, up 21.2% from a year earlier, beating its own €8.4–€9.0 billion guidance and Wall Street's €8.80 billion estimate, with net profit reaching €2.918 billion.
• Citing "extremely strong" orders as chipmakers expand for AI-driven demand, ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast to €43–€45 billion from €36–€40 billion, roughly 35% growth over 2025's €32.7 billion, lifting margins to 54–56%.
• The US-listed shares, up about 69% this year and around 145% over twelve months to roughly $1,748, drew unanimous Buy ratings and a $2,421 average target, implying about 38.5% upside from current levels.

• China's Moonshot AI is preparing a Hong Kong stock market debut within six months, seeking a valuation above $30 billion, with Goldman Sachs and China International Capital Corp reportedly in talks to advise on the listing.
• The plan follows fast growth: Moonshot's annual recurring revenue rose to $300 million by June from $200 million in April, driven by its new Kimi K3 model, which topped Anthropic's Opus on some benchmarks.
• The news hit Hong Kong-listed rivals, with Zhipu and MiniMax shares falling roughly 27% and 16%, as Kimi K3's open-source release on July 27 lets outside developers freely use and adapt the system.

• US regulators blew past the July 18 deadline to finalize rules for the GENIUS Act, leaving the framework governing dollar-linked stablecoins incomplete even as the law's core requirements stay legally in force.
• Six agencies, including the OCC, FDIC and Treasury, failed to complete rulebooks covering reserves, redemptions, capital and custody, with several related proposals still open for public comment into September, delaying clear compliance instructions for issuers.
• January 18, 2027 now stands as the key operational date for a stablecoin market that topped $300 billion by April 2026, leaving issuers, banks and exchanges to restructure reserves and choose supervision around still-unfinished rules.

• The Fed's July estimate shows headline US inflation easing to 3.32% from May's three-year high of 4.2%, but a stubborn core measure that strips out food and energy signals price pressures are spreading beyond fuel.
• The relief came as oil prices dropped on US-Iran peace talks, reversing a spike triggered when the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off a fifth of global petroleum demand and pushed gas prices up at their fastest pace in over three decades.
• Core PCE, a favored Fed gauge, is barely moving — projected at 3.36% in July versus 3.4% in May — suggesting policymakers may need to raise rates, a risk to AI stocks whose debt-financed data-center build-out and lofty valuations depend on cheap borrowing.

🌍 Macro News

• China's state funds bought stocks, but the rebound remains shaky and uneven. LINK
• Strategists warn markets underprice climate risk amid heatwaves and a possible super El Niño. LINK
• China's car sales are set for their worst year since 2021. LINK
• Tether's USDT faces a two-year deadline to comply with new US crypto law. LINK
• The White House may create an independent AI-safety regulator reporting to the SEC. LINK
• Governments increasingly treat AI memory chip access as an economic security priority. LINK
• Bond traders, not new PM Andy Burnham, will drive Britain's economy. LINK

🏢 Corporate News

• Anthropic is in early talks to rent computing power from Meta. LINK
• Ryanair's quarterly profit fell 34% on higher fuel costs and lower fares. LINK
• Apple has begun early talks with the DOJ to settle its antitrust case. LINK
• T. Rowe Price launched the first actively managed multi-token crypto ETF. LINK
• Meta plans to hire an AWS executive to expand its data centers. LINK
• Coca-Cola shares dipped after a ransomware attack hit its fairlife unit. LINK
• FTX will start paying creditors about $900 million in late July. LINK
• SAP closed its acquisition of AI startup Prior Labs, pledging over €1 billion. LINK
• Nvidia's Jensen Huang secured multiple deals during his Tokyo tech tour. LINK

📈 Stocks

📑 Research & Reports

• Banks shifted risk, not reduced it, when meeting Basel III capital rules. LINK
• The ECB is building a digital euro to complement, not replace, cash. LINK
• Euro-area firms reported sharply tighter bank lending conditions in early 2026. LINK
• AI-driven shifts are eroding traditional vendor lock-in among tech suppliers. LINK
• Fading demand for tech debt threatens higher borrowing costs for AI firms. LINK
• Asian demand for AI-chip stocks drove record Wall Street trading revenue. LINK

💰 Deal Flow

• Databricks' valuation reached $188 billion in a Coatue-led funding round. LINK
• CuspAI raised $450 million to advance AI-driven materials discovery. LINK
• Valar Atomics seeks $1 billion funding at a $6 billion valuation. LINK
• ACI Worldwide may sell its billing unit for about $1.5 billion. LINK
• Partners Group raised over $15 billion for a new infrastructure fund. LINK
• Segro rejected Prologis's third takeover bid, worth £13.5 billion. LINK
• Samsung Biologics will buy PolyPeptide for $1.8 billion, its biggest deal yet. LINK

📅 Market Calendar

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