☕️ Oil slides a fourth day as Iran war fears ease

Hi there, this is your daily ☕️ Finpresso.

In today's newsletter:

🛢️ Oil falls a fourth day as Iran war fears ease

📈 Big Tech rallies after Democratic midterm sweep

📡 SpaceX's Qualcomm deal threatens major US wireless carriers

🏭 Arm beats estimates on data center demand

🚫 FT reveals Oracle scrapped $7 billion Tencent chip deal

Plus: 🌍 9 macro stories, 🏢 10 corporate stories, and 📑 6 research & reports.

📊 Before The Bell

• Oil extended its slide for a fourth day on Thursday, after Trump's Republicans lost ground in this week's Congressional elections, easing fears that the US-Israeli war on Iran could escalate further.
• Brent fell 1.03% to $93.65 a barrel and US WTI dropped 1.29% to $86.98, a day after both benchmarks tumbled more than 8% to their lowest since August 31, as traders bet a weakened Trump has more reason to seek a deal.
• Analysts warn the selloff may be short-lived: the new Congress only takes office in January, so US policy hasn't actually changed, while commercial oil stocks in major consumers sit near a 15-year low and Iran could harden its stance.

• Big Tech rallied after Democrats swept the US midterms, lifting Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft by 6% or more and pushing the Dow up 3%, as the result eased political uncertainty over Wall Street.
• The move split the AI trade: Goldman Sachs says Democratic state-level wins make data-center building bans more likely, potentially affecting about 45% of planned US data-center capacity, sending Nvidia down nearly 2% while hyperscalers that spend on chips gained.
• A slower buildout threatens revenue for chipmakers and builders and lower capital spending for cloud giants, the fear that recently pushed the Nasdaq 100 into correction, though Franklin Templeton's Stephen Dover said it changes where and how fast facilities get built, not underlying AI demand.

• SpaceX has moved closer to building a nationwide mobile carrier to rival AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon, picking Qualcomm's Dragonwing platform to power the ground-based 5G network behind its Starlink Mobile service.
• The multi-year deal requires SpaceX to install Qualcomm chip technology across tens of thousands of cellular towers nationwide, with deployment starting next year and ramping toward full coverage, building on its recent purchase of 800 MHz spectrum licenses.
• The push follows AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon reportedly rejecting SpaceX's requests to rent their network capacity, prompting talks with EchoStar to run a carrier through its Boost Mobile brand, with the Big Three seeing little incentive to help a likely rival.

• Arm reported quarterly revenue of $1.44 billion, beating the $1.38 billion analysts expected, as cloud providers building custom AI data-center chips paid more in licensing fees and royalties on its processor designs.
• Unlike firms that make chips, Arm licenses its architecture and collects royalties per chip shipped; licensing revenue of $773 million blew past estimates, though royalties of $670 million came in below forecasts.
• Despite the beat, Arm shares fell about 2% after hours, with the company guiding to third-quarter revenue of $1.54 billion, barely above what analysts had forecast.

• Oracle has cancelled a roughly $7 billion deal to lease AI chips to Tencent after Trump administration officials raised concerns with the company, the Financial Times reported, citing two people familiar with the matter.
• The five-year lease would have given Tencent access to as many as 100,000 advanced chips across Oracle data centers in Southeast Asia, its largest overseas leasing deal, chips it can't use at home due to both Washington and Beijing curbs.
• Tencent had already paid about 30% upfront, roughly $2.1 billion, and neither firm has said what happens to that money; the exit came despite existing rules allowing such deals, a day after Nvidia told customers most services must go to non-Chinese clients.

🌍 Macro News

• OCC tells bank examiners to assess AI systems by potential harm. LINK
• UK lawmakers warn dangerous China reliance for critical minerals demands diversification. LINK
• EU commits €525 million to platform nurturing semiconductor design startups. LINK
• Treasury drops steady-auction guidance, allowing larger short-term debt sales. LINK
• US firms added 86,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts as labor market stabilizes. LINK
• China diesel exports may fall sharply as domestic stockpiles need replenishing. LINK
• Equinor shuts Visund platform after fire, halting its gas exports. LINK
• US crude inventories fell, remaining below their five-year seasonal average. LINK
• Democratic congressional gains could trigger tighter local limits on data centers. LINK

🏢 Corporate News

• Google will invest $15 billion in Malaysian data centers and infrastructure. LINK
• Apple limits employee spending on AI tools amid broader cost controls. LINK
• Circle beat revenue forecasts despite cutting 5% of its workforce. LINK
• Qualcomm beat earnings and sales forecasts, but shares fell after hours. LINK
• OpenAI buys Pierre Computer to expand its AI coding platform. LINK
• Uber beat quarterly estimates but warned costs will pressure fourth-quarter profit. LINK
• HP names Emma Walmsley CEO, with Bruce Broussard becoming board chair. LINK
• Meta acquires Conductor to run multiple AI coding agents simultaneously. LINK
• NextDC shares surged after Goodman and Digital Realty sought stakes. LINK
• Sequoia raises $10 billion while closing London office and founder programs. LINK

📈 Stocks

📑 Research & Reports

• 7 AI stocks to buy before the OpenAI IPO: covers the AI names MarketBeat thinks re-rate when OpenAI lists, in a free report. Get the free report
• Bank of America says slower AI spending could prolong the stock rally. LINK
• Few financial firms have scaled multi-agent AI despite widespread pilots. LINK
• New York Fed finds lender market dominance drives differing credit-card rates. LINK
• Bitcoin's mixed post-hack record suggests Binance theft may not weigh long-term. LINK
• Britons use AI for money management but resist handing over control. LINK
• Treasury panel says AI boom's circular financing remains deliberate and mostly sound. LINK

📅 Market Calendar

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