☕️ Rising yields put stocks on edge

Hi there, this is your daily ☕️ Finpresso.

In today's newsletter:

📈 Treasury yield surge threatens global stock markets

🤖 Robinhood launches AI agents that trade for you

💰 OpenAI seeks $30B to delay its IPO

🤝 AI firms sign voluntary self-policing pledge

🏢 Meta stock drops 8% on OpenAI's assistant launch

Plus: 🌍 10 macro stories, 🏢 10 corporate stories, and 📑 6 research & reports.

📊 Before The Bell

• A sharp US bond sell-off today drove the 10-year Treasury yield up about 1% to 5.214%, while the 30-year yield briefly topped 5.6% to reach its highest level since June 2002.
• The move follows a surge in oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, which is stoking fresh inflation fears and pushing traders to price in a more than 72% chance the Fed hikes rates again at its October meeting.
• Analysts say sustained high US yields could weigh on Indian equities, as foreign investors shift toward better-paying US debt, an effect worsened by a weaker rupee that erodes their dollar returns and India's higher oil-import bill.

• Robinhood has begun rolling out AI trading agents powered by OpenAI and Anthropic to its roughly 29 million customers, letting non-technical users instruct bots in plain English to place trades, run research, and build strategies.
• Users pick a model, OpenAI's GPT-6 Luna or Sol, or Anthropic's Opus 4.8, and can set "Loops" that trade automatically when conditions are met; guardrails include a separate agent account, trade-size limits, and optional confirmation before execution.
• An earlier technical version drew over 150,000 agentic accounts and now handles nearly 30 million daily transactions, but Robinhood concedes it's unclear where legal liability lands if trades go wrong, and mass agent activity could add market volatility.

• OpenAI is in talks to raise at least $30 billion in a pre-IPO round valuing it at roughly $1.4 trillion, a bridge deal that pushes its stock-market debut past this year, Bloomberg reported yesterday.
• Investor appetite reflects a 70% jump in run-rate revenue since July, reaching $40 billion in August, after the company refocused on areas like coding to pull ahead of Anthropic.
• The valuation would nearly double the $852 billion set in a $122 billion March round once meant to be its last private raise, but CEO Sam Altman has now ruled out a 2026 IPO, citing AI safety concerns.

• Leaders of major AI companies signed a voluntary accord with the Trump administration yesterday, agreeing to internal and external reviews of their technology, though the deal stops short of government-imposed rules or "guardrails."
• The pledge lands as firms spend hundreds of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure, and it commits developers to ease bipartisan opposition to local data centres by funding local schools or lowering energy costs, with Trump warning holdout communities could push projects overseas.
• The self-policing framing masks a split among the executives present, Amodei, Musk and Altman have urged slowing development after AI agents "went rogue," while Huang and Zuckerberg played down those risks; OpenAI halted a new model's rollout on Monday over safety concerns.

• OpenAI is expected to unveil a continuously active AI assistant, possibly called "O," at its developer event today, setting up a direct challenge to Meta's rival Muse agent.
• The prospect helped drag Meta shares down 8% over the past two sessions, though the stock still holds a 25% gain for September, powered by Muse, which drew roughly 2.8 million installs in its first two weeks.
• Meta is countering by expanding into business use, launching Muse for Small Business with links to Shopify, Stripe and QuickBooks, part of a push to lean less on advertising revenue and sustain the stock's momentum.

🌍 Macro News

• China’s factory activity returned to growth in September after three months. LINK
• US labor-market churn returned to normal as workers stopped job-hopping. LINK
• China threatened firm retaliation against EU curbs on Chinese firms. LINK
• Chinese policymakers signaled greater support for property, jobs and household spending. LINK
• Middle East crude exports recovered to 98% of pre-conflict levels. LINK
• OPEC producers are expected to keep November crude quotas unchanged. LINK
• US consumer confidence fell as cost worries reached record levels. LINK
• France plans record €340 billion bond borrowing in 2027. LINK
• SEC and CFTC will have three commissioners after Peirce departs Friday. LINK
• Taylor says rate hikes lack a case unless energy inflation spreads. LINK

🏢 Corporate News

• Netlist seeks US import ban on Micron chips over alleged patent infringement. LINK
• Oura shelved its Nasdaq IPO, citing uncertainty in new listings. LINK
• OpenAI’s annualized revenue nears $70 billion as enterprise sales more than doubled. LINK
• Musk reversed criticism after Anthropic’s $1.25 billion monthly SpaceX deal emerged. LINK
• Kalshi is in talks to raise $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation. LINK
• Apple Pay launched in India with Axis Bank-issued Visa and Mastercard cards. LINK
• Appeals court upheld Thomson Reuters’ claim Ross illegally copied Westlaw material. LINK
• Corning shares rose nearly 5% after AT&T agreed to a fiber-optic materials deal. LINK
• Citi lets bank clients access multiple instant-payment markets through one account. LINK
• Cboe and S&P Dow Jones explore tokenized options under an expanded licensing deal. LINK

📈 Stocks

📑 Research & Reports

• Aleph's 2026 SaaS benchmarks: collect the growth, retention and efficiency numbers SaaS finance teams are actually measured on this year. Download the free benchmarks
• 83% of North American CFOs see US stocks overvalued, Deloitte found. LINK
• JPMorgan turns bullish as Morgan Stanley warns stocks face correction. LINK
• Three-quarters of US banks have blockchain finance programs underway, survey finds. LINK
• Bitcoin ETF inflows reflect arbitrage, not necessarily institutional bets on rising prices. LINK
• UK venture funds match US long-term returns, with newer funds outperforming peers. LINK
• New York Fed researchers explain why distinct repo market segments settle differently. LINK

📅 Market Calendar

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